Get the Edge — Choose Your Winning Plan

I have been a horse racing punter for over a decade, predominantly in Victoria and New South Wales. The majority of my betting used to take place on race mornings or the night before, whenever time permitted. Unfortunately, with the current landscape, I can no longer bet early with any confidence. Bookmaker percentages are at an all-time high due to the POC tax, and the actual race tracks are in poorer condition than I can ever recall. Most country tracks are in desperate need of funding, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to predict how they will play.

As a result, I’ve shifted about 90% of my betting to late in the piece. The positive side of the struggling tracks is that they can often produce significant biases— most notably, a rails-in-run bias. Identifying these biases and betting accordingly is where my edge comes from these days. The market is largely driven by figures and data, which means it often overlooks horses that are exceptionally suited to how a track is playing, especially in country and provincial areas.